SOUTHEAST EUROPE: Bulgaria may permanently stop Russian gas exports to Central Europe. Will he do it?

The last pipeline transit route of Russian gas to Central Europe that would remain functional after the transit through Ukraine is stopped can also be closed, in theory. From Bulgaria.

Bulgaria, a transit country for Gazprom’s gas reaching southern Europe via the TurkStream pipeline, can play a key role in concluding the current agreement between Hungary and Gazprom amid ongoing supply negotiations, said Martin Vladimirov, director of the program of energy and climate in the influential Bulgarian think-tank Center for the Study of Democracy, for Euractiv Bulgaria.

The energy expert called for a European-level decision to ban Russian gas or introduce a tax to equalize the cost of buying cheaper Russian gas with alternative sources.

“Bulgaria should no longer allow Russian gas to flow to Central Europe because in this way we are once again turning into a ‘Trojan horse’ of Russian fuel,” Vladimirov commented.

From the beginning of 2025, the TurkStream route through Bulgaria will be the only gas pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe, after the closure of the Ukrainian route. We remind you that Gazprom has developed a pipeline system that undercuts the Black Sea and reaches Turkey, and from there it goes through and towards the other countries in the south, east and finally the center of Europe (including through Romania’s transport system) first entering Bulgaria.

“Bulgaria will be the most important country for gas transit. This means that Bulgaria is the key to stopping Russian gas,” Vladimirov explained. He added that the state-owned firm Bulgartransgaz could easily end its relationship with Gazprom if such a political decision is made.

Vladimirov also argues that this will cause serious unrest in Serbia and Hungary, and perhaps an avalanche of lawsuits against Bulgaria, and that is why he advocated an EU-level decision.

“The best solution is for the EU to decide to ban the import of Russian gas, but there is also a more cunning way. The EU could decide that all gas entering the bloc from Ukraine or Turkey is automatically considered Russian gas and taxed,” Vladimirov added. The tax is intended to align the price of Russian gas with the cost of purchasing alternative gas.

“This should serve as an incentive for Gazprom’s customers to reduce their dependence on the Russian company. From what can be seen, the market share of Russian gas in Europe is constantly increasing, because gas is very cheap. Many EU companies that had stopped buying it, for example the Czech ones, have resumed supplies,” he added. He also recalled that Italian companies have also increased their purchases of Russian gas.

“Everyone benefits from the low price and the fact that there are no sanctions against Russian gas,” the analyst pointed out.

An analysis by the Center for the Study of Democracy, presented in June, shows that the Central and Eastern European region has three times more available capacity to import alternative gas than it currently imports from Russia. These countries have three times more gas supply capacity than Russia through the existing interconnection network.

The most vulnerable countries are the most dependent on Russian gas – Slovakia, Austria, Greece, indirectly, and Bulgaria, “because in practice they import Russian gas from Greece, which is marketed under a different label,” says Vladimirov.

“The existence of alternatives means that there are solutions, but we need political will and a little more unanimity at European level,” he added.

Asked by Euractiv Bulgaria whether European rules allow Hungary to use the full capacity of TurkStream to import Russian gas, Vladimirov recalled that Gazprom reserves 90% of the pipeline’s capacity. The expert added that if Gazprom keeps the remaining 10% capacity free, it will not violate EU legislation. Hungary, like other countries, can buy Russian gas at the border between Bulgaria and Turkey and transport it to Hungary.

The TurkStream pipeline, built shortly before the Russian invasion, bypasses Ukraine and delivers Russian gas along the Black Sea floor to the European territory of Turkey and then to Bulgaria, where it forks into Balkan Stream. Bulgaria does not import gas from this pipeline, but provides transit to Serbia and Hungary.

In late 2023, Boyko Borisov, former prime minister and leader of the Bulgarian GERB party, admitted that Bulgaria tried to use the transit of Russian gas as an argument to convince Austria to let Bulgaria into the Schengen area.

The Turkish Stream gas pipeline was built in 2020, when Borissov was prime minister and Ekaterina Zaharieva, Bulgaria’s current candidate for commissioner, was foreign minister.

In October 2023, the Bulgarian government announced that it would impose a new tax on the transit of Russian gas to Central Europe via Turkish Stream, angering Serbia and Hungary.

The government in Budapest threatened to veto Bulgaria’s accession to Schengen, and the new tax was cancelled.

European Energy Commissioner: There is no excuse for those still taking Russian gas

European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told reporters last Tuesday that the EU bloc would be able to replace the flow of Russian gas passing through Ukraine to Central Europe when the transit contract expires in December.

“I reaffirm, together with the ministers, that we are ready for the end of the contract between Russia and Naftogaz (Ukraine). There are options to replace the flow of 14 billion cubic meters of Russian gas that are still being delivered,” Simson said at a press conference after the meeting of EU energy ministers.

“There are no excuses. The EU can live without Russian gas…I want to be clear that it is not a necessity but a political decision, and a dangerous one”, warned the European energy commissioner.

On the same day, however, the Hungarian state energy group MVM and the Russian giant Gazprom concluded an additional commercial contract that will ensure the continued supply of Russian gas at a competitive price, announced the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto, as noted Budapest Business Journal.

Hungary’s foreign minister said last week that “the most important step in Hungary’s energy security in recent years has been the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, which brings Russian gas to Europe via the southern route.” “Many people cannot fully appreciate its significance because, fortunately, they have not had to experience a lack of energy security,” said the Hungarian minister.

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