Gloomy forecast from a US photovoltaic expert: Half of the systems installed before 2016 will not survive 2030. “We promised 25 years of performance, they don’t even last 10.” What’s happening
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A specialist from the United States shows that the big problem now is related to the degradation of photovoltaic installations installed in the past that do not work in any way as the industry promised. There are several reasons, and the reconditioning or upgrading of those installations – those that should not be decommissioned – will be a big problem.
Cesar Barbosa is a specialist in decommissioning and repowering for photovoltaic systems in the United States. A former employee of SunPower Corp since 2012, five years ago he founded his own company, NuLife Power, which deals with the maintenance, repowering or, where it is no longer possible, decommissioning of photovoltaic systems and has, during this period, 40 commercial photovoltaic systems installed or upgraded. While the industry is always concerned with increasing installed capacity year after year, he says the installation fever of the past is starting to show its effects – US PV systems are degrading much faster than previously thought: “the next frontier of solar energy — not in installing the next 100GW, but in saving the first 100GW.”
Here’s what Cesar Barbosa wrote on LinkedIn, in full:
A bold prediction that no one wants to hear: Half of all commercial solar systems installed before 2016 will perform below expectations or not at all by 2030.
The solar industry is obsessed with the future.
Next-generation panels (bigger is better). Stylish batteries. Dizzying Forecasts for New Installations
But here’s the reality we can’t afford to ignore: A silent crisis is unfolding on rooftops across America — a crisis I’ve been experiencing firsthand since 2012, when I began traveling the country with SunPower to fix some of the worst PV system failures.
Across the country, tens of thousands of rooftop solar systems — once seen as the symbol of the clean energy revolution — are quietly deteriorating. Not because the technology failed, but because the industry did. We rushed to install. We made compromises. We promised 25 years of performance… and delivered systems that didn’t even last 10 years.
Here’s what’s killing them:
Inverters are failing — many are already out of warranty and there are no replacements available.
The wiring and electrical infrastructure were not designed for 25+ years of exposure.
Installation quality? Let’s not talk about it—an army of poorly trained teams sustained the boom, and now we’re paying the price.
Maintenance? There was no plan. Just a contract, a handshake, and the hope that everything will work out.
This isn’t just an engineering problem—it’s a financial one. Assets that aren’t performing at their best are generating less revenue than expected, while increasing the risk of electrical failures, fires, and claims.
And the worst part: almost no one is prepared to deal with this wave of failures. Asset managers, facility owners, and even EPC contractors are finding that retrofitting, remediation, or decommissioning is much more complicated and expensive than they expected.
Here lies the next frontier for solar—not in installing the next 100GW, but in saving the first 100GW.
Revitalize. Modernize. Responsible end-of-life planning. The question is not whether it will come. But whether we have the courage to face it. Will we continue to sell the dream or will we finally clean up the mess we left behind?
Globally, there is 1,865,000 MW of installed solar capacity, according to IRENA data for the end of 2024.
